Market Size Calculator (TAM SAM SOM)

TAM (Total Addressable Market) is the total revenue opportunity if your product served 100% of the market globally or nationally. SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market) is the portion you can realistically target with your current product and geography. SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market) is what you can actually capture in the near term.

Investors want to see that your market is large enough to justify investment and build a scalable business. A ₦500M SOM in Nigeria may be attractive for a seed-stage startup. A ₦50B TAM signals room to grow. Being realistic about SOM shows you understand your go-to-market limitations.

Top-down: start with macro data (e.g., Nigeria has 220M people, X% are internet users, Y% shop online). Bottom-up: estimate customers × average transaction × frequency. Bottom-up tends to be more credible with investors. Use data from NBS (National Bureau of Statistics), CBN reports, and industry associations.

Most early-stage companies capture 1–5% of their SAM in the first 2–3 years. A SOM of 1–3% of SAM in Year 1 is realistic and defensible. Claiming 20%+ SOM in early pitches signals either a very niche market or unrealistic projections.

Growth comes from product differentiation, distribution channels (agents, partnerships, digital), brand building, pricing strategy, and customer service. In Nigeria, trust and word-of-mouth are particularly powerful. Understanding local payment preferences (USSD, POS, cash) and delivery constraints matters enormously.